How do your know your goal in life will come to reality?
I’ll answer that question soon. But first, let’s talk about the book I read this weekend.
The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow
This book is the single best book on Probability & Statistics I have ever read. It discusses every major and often used theory in Probability & Statistics from how the originator came about the theory to its day-to-day applications.
Everything from basic probability to Standard Deviation to Coefficient of Correlation and everything between was explained in plain, simple and entertaining language.
Amongst other lessons, I found in the book a logical reason for persistence in whatever goal you set for yourself to achieve.
The Drunkard’s Walk to Success
When we were kids and played “Ludo” (I know some of you still do), how many tosses of the two dice in the cup did it take to get a 6 on one of the dice?
Let’s assume the number was at least 20 to 30 times or more.
But let’s assume that this is your life goal and a six means achieving the goal. Any other digit apart from a six is a failed trial. If this was true, how many times would you roll the dice? 10 times , 20 times or 30 times?
Here’s what you may not know about the famous people below:
J.K. Rowling’s first Harry Potter manuscript was rejected by 9 consecutive publishers.
John Grisham’s manuscript for A Time To Kill was rejected by 26 consecutive publishers.
Animal Farm was rejected by a publisher who said “it is impossible to sell animal stories in the US”.
The executives at Universal Studios called George Lucas’s ‘Adventures of Luke Starkiller as taken from the “Journal of the Whills” ‘, “unproduceable”. Ultimately, Twentieth Century Fox made the film, but even they had doubts. They paid Lucas just $200,000 to write and direct it. In exchange for the small pay, Lucas received the sequel and merchandising rights. In the end “Star Wars” brought in $461,000,000 on a budget of $13,000,000 and Lucas became crazy rich.
The Secret To Success
But how many of us stop after trying once and failing? How many stop after trying twice? The most common are those who never try even once. The goal seems too big to them, they think because one or two people said “no”, they can never achieve it.
As you read the examples above, understand this: Everything person who becomes “successful” has this story . They always say they tried and failed at many things. i.e. They rolled the dice. Almost every single one of them says they tried many things and failed at them. But they didn’t stop trying.
This is why every person who eventually becomes successful is a member of a Set. The Set of people who never give up.
If you roll the dice enough times, you will eventually get a 6. It’s certain to happen because the more times you roll, you increase your chances by the sheer number of times you have tried.
This is why it is not logical to give up.
If the thing that increases your chances to succeed at something is the number of times you try it, why will you stop doing the only thing that increases your chances of succeeding?
In conclusion, success at something is a statistical event. The more you try, the more you learn better ways to try. And each subsequent trial becomes better than the last.
This is how Buhari became president elect. Since he started contesting in 2003, he never stopped contesting. He contested every single presidential election until he won. And if you watch each of his rolls of the dice closely, he became a stronger candidate with each try.
This is exactly how success happens in the overwhelming majority of successes.
My advice: Don’t sit with the crowd and complain about life and the government and the opposite sex and religion and all the crap we use to justify our bench-warming attitude. Problems will always be a part of our lives. Complaining has never solved any problem.
Every body has his or her dice.
Roll your dice. And never stop rolling till you get a six.
After all, success is just a game of chance.